Plano, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

066
FXUS64 KFWD 281924
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain and storms are expected from Tuesday night
  through Thursday night. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are
  likely, with isolated totals of 4 to 5 inches.

- Heavy rainfall may cause flooding Wednesday night into Thursday.
  A few strong or severe thunderstorms are also possible, mainly
  across Central Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1232 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/
/Rest of Today through Wednesday/

Cool and cloudy conditions will continue the rest of the day with
afternoon highs staying generally in the 50s. A continuous influx
of moisture just above the surface will keep these low clouds
over much of the state with occasional light rain/drizzle across
portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. Coverage of this
light precipitation will begin to increase overnight into
tomorrow morning as isentropic lift spreads across the region
ahead of the next storm system. A mix of low clouds, fog, and/or
light rain can be expected during the day.

As the approaching surface low/Pacific front moves from the west,
a warm front will begin to push northward over our area in the
afternoon. This may bring the potential for a few elevated storms
and slightly higher rainfall rates mainly across the western half
of the region. Otherwise, Wednesday`s highs will range from the
50s/60s across North Texas and 60s across Central Texas.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

The closed low over the Desert Southwest will gradually move east
into the Southern Plains midweek. Increased forcing for ascent
from the upper level trough will allow for an uptick in convective
storm coverage late Wednesday. Down at the surface, cyclogenesis
will commence as the system`s attendant warm front moves northward
and a Pacific front/dryline feature sharpens along our Big
Country counties. This system amplification and enhanced lift
along the Pacific front will promote rapid upscale growth into a
more linear storm mode going through Thursday morning.

Regarding any severe potential, the current limiting factor is
just how much instability is present. Currently, model guidance
continues to have meager environmental instability. However,
atmospheric shear will be abundant across the board, with 60-70
kts of sfc-6km shear shown in various model soundings. While the
overall set up is not terribly impressive, this high shear/low
CAPE scenario will allow for a few strong to severe storms to
occur Wednesday night into Thursday as the line transits east.
Most of this activity will remain elevated in nature leading to
more of a threat for small hail, however model guidance is
highlighting some marginal surface-based instability across
Central Texas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Looking
further into this signal, model soundings show backed surface
winds from the low-levels down to the surface (generally in the
effective inflow layer) and curved low-level hodograph profiles.
Normally, this would promote a window of increased potential for
damaging winds and tornadoes across our Central Texas counties.
The uncertainty of this panning out is high due to the little to
no surface instability present. We`ll need to watch over the next
day for any increased confidence. Bottom line up front: a lot of
things on radar will rotate tomorrow, but whether or not any of
these storms will be surface-based remains up in the air.

Aside from the low-end severe threat, heavy rain will be a
leading concern through midweek. Within the warm sector of the
storm system, PWATs around 1.4" will be present. These values are
well above the daily maximum PWAT from our sounding climatology.
Since we have been dry for the last while, flooding normally would
not be a problem as much of the rainfall would be filtered into
the ground. However, the lingering cold soils will inhibit more
efficient saturation leading to greater runoff potential. Most
likely rain totals through Friday morning will be a widespread
1-3", though there is a potential for isolated totals between 4-5"
east of I-35 and north of I-20 where training thunderstorms are
more likely.

The Pacific front will quickly move through the region over the
day Thursday, shunting the rain and storms eastward and leaving
behind clearing skies. All activity should come to an end by
Thursday evening. The system`s true cold front will lag behind,
moving through North and Central Texas Thursday night into Friday
morning. Slightly cooler temperatures are to be expected on
Friday, with highs in the low-upper 60s and lows in the 30s and
40s.

Going through the weekend and into next week, expect a warming
trend to take place as weak upper level ridging moves overhead.
Afternoon highs each day will peak in the 60s and 70s, generally
between 10-20 degrees degrees above normal for the beginning of
February. Another cut-off low looks to make temporary residence
across the Desert Southwest this upcoming weekend, but confidence
in accompanying early week rain chances remains low at this time.
We will continue to watch this scenario in the coming days and
will discuss more in future forecast issuances.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1232 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Widespread low clouds with increasing rain/storm
chances.

Poor flying conditions will prevail most of the period due to a
mix of low clouds/vsby and a few rounds of drizzle and showers
beginning tonight through tomorrow. For the rest of today, clouds
will continue to lift to VFR, but widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings
will return around midnight tonight. Confidence is increasing that
some of the DFW Metroplex sites could see brief periods of LIFR
during the day tomorrow. Given the uncertainty of timing of these
lower ceilings, we opted to not included it in the TAF yet. In
terms of precipitation, occasional drizzle or light rain is
forecast after midnight tonight, but better rain chances will
arrive during the day tomorrow. A warm front is expected to push
north during the afternoon and evening resulting in more
widespread rain and isolated lightning.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  62  55  66  45 /  20  80 100  80   0
Waco                53  65  57  68  46 /  20  70 100  90   5
Paris               46  59  53  66  44 /  10  60 100 100   5
Denton              47  59  52  66  41 /  20  90 100  70   0
McKinney            48  60  53  65  43 /  20  80 100  90   0
Dallas              51  62  55  68  46 /  20  80 100  80   0
Terrell             49  63  55  66  44 /  20  80 100  90   5
Corsicana           53  65  58  69  46 /  20  70  90 100   5
Temple              52  67  56  68  44 /  20  70 100  90   5
Mineral Wells       49  61  50  68  41 /  30  80 100  40   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$